MLB Home Run Predictions Today

Model-ranked anytime home-run picks for today's slate — which hitters are most likely to go deep, with park and pitching-matchup context.

#PlayerMatchupModelTierParkPitcher
1 Luis Garcia Jr. NYY vs SEA 31.6% Elite Target 1.19 Logan Gilbert
2 Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC vs WSH 31.2% Elite Target 1.08 Cade Cavalli
3 Ben Rice NYY vs SEA 31.1% Elite Target 1.19 Logan Gilbert
4 CJ Abrams WSH vs CHC 29.7% Elite Target 1.08 Kevin Gausman
5 Griffin Conine MIA vs PIT 28.4% Elite Target 0.93 Braxton Ashcraft
6 Abimelec Ortiz WSH vs CHC 27.8% Elite Target 1.08 Kevin Gausman
7 Wilyer Abreu BOS vs TOR 25.9% Elite Target 1.05 Max Scherzer
8 Cal Raleigh SEA vs NYY 24.0% Elite Target 1.17 Max Fried
9 Trent Grisham NYY vs SEA 23.6% Elite Target 1.19 Logan Gilbert
10 Jackson Chourio MIL vs LAD 23.4% Elite Target 1.32 Roki Sasaki
11 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY vs SEA 23.0% Elite Target 1.19 Logan Gilbert
12 Byron Buxton MIN vs PHI 22.8% Elite Target 0.98 Aaron Nola
13 Eugenio Suarez CIN vs CHW 22.7% Elite Target 0.88 Davis Martin
14 Willson Contreras BOS vs TOR 22.4% Elite Target 1.09 Max Scherzer
15 Shohei Ohtani LAD vs MIL 22.4% Elite Target 1.20 Shane Drohan
16 Jake Bauers MIL vs LAD 21.6% Elite Target 1.20 Roki Sasaki
17 JJ Bleday CIN vs CHW 21.3% Elite Target 1.03 Davis Martin
18 Christian Yelich MIL vs LAD 21.1% Elite Target 1.20 Roki Sasaki
19 Bryce Harper PHI vs MIN 20.8% Elite Target 0.93 Taj Bradley
20 Daylen Lile WSH vs CHC 20.7% Elite Target 1.08 Kevin Gausman
21 Joc Pederson TEX vs LAA 20.0% Target 0.96 Walbert Urena
22 Julio Rodriguez SEA vs NYY 19.9% Target 1.17 Max Fried
23 Brandon Lowe PIT vs MIA 19.8% Target 0.93 Tyler Phillips
24 Spencer Jones NYY vs SEA 19.7% Target 1.19 Logan Gilbert
25 Tommy Edman LAD vs MIL 19.6% Target 1.32 Shane Drohan

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